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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 20.3 | 22.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 14.7 | 14.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | HOU | 14.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 21.8 | 19.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 13.4 | 5.7 | BUST | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 10.2 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | CIN | 12.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 6.2 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Projections optimized for categorical accuracy (BOOM/BUST prediction) rather than MAE
| Player | Pos | Conf | Mode | Aggr | Std | ESPN | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0.63 | BOOM | 25.9 | 22.0 | 20.3 | +5.6 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 0.29 | MODERATE | 13.7 | 14.5 | 14.7 | -1.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 0.20 | BUST | 3.3 | 12.0 | 14.9 | -11.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 0.37 | MODERATE | 18.1 | 19.5 | 21.8 | -3.7 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 0.21 | MODERATE | 15.4 | 5.7 | 13.4 | +2.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 0.38 | MODERATE | 9.5 | 9.0 | 10.2 | -0.7 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 0.49 | BOOM | 23.9 | 14.0 | 12.9 | +11.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | 0.24 | MODERATE | 11.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | +3.4 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 0.45 | BOOM | 18.8 | 8.0 | 6.2 | +12.7 |
| TOTAL | 140.4 | 113.7 | - | - | |||
| Player | Pos | Conf | Mode | Aggr | Std | ESPN | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | RB | 0.16 | BUST | 2.3 | 18.0 | 22.3 | -20.0 |
| James Cook III | RB | 0.39 | MODERATE | 16.0 | 18.0 | 17.2 | -1.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 0.10 | BUST | 4.7 | 12.0 | 12.4 | -7.7 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0.46 | BOOM | 22.4 | 14.0 | 13.2 | +9.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 0.29 | MODERATE | 11.9 | 11.0 | 12.0 | -0.1 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 0.36 | MODERATE | 10.2 | 12.0 | 12.1 | -1.9 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 0.41 | BOOM | 31.4 | 20.0 | 20.5 | +10.9 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | 0.29 | MODERATE | 8.9 | 8.0 | 8.9 | -0.0 |
| Cairo Santos | K | 0.18 | BUST | 4.0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | -4.4 |
| TOTAL | 111.8 | 120.0 | - | - | |||
Methodology: Confidence = (MC_boom × 0.4) + (XGB_boom × 0.3) + (Matchup × 0.3). BOOM if conf ≥ 0.55, BUST if conf ≤ 0.34. Aggressive projects to mode extremes.
Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Quentin Johnston (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rashid Shaheed (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts))
Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 17 Championship matchup against Kitty's Piggy Skins (10-5). We're down 35.3 points after Thursday games - Jameson Williams busted at 5.7 while opponent's Thursday players scored 41.0. Jacoby Brissett in the elite CIN matchup (53.5 total) anchors our comeback attempt. Key decision: MHJ in FLEX over McMillan despite injury - XGB boom signal at 42.3% is too strong to ignore against the 28th-ranked CIN secondary.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | ✓ 5.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 3.2 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 20.3 | 22.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 14.7 | 14.5 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 14.9 | 12.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.8 | 19.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.3 | 13.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.2 | 8.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 12.9 | 14.0 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Rashid Shaheed (bench) | WR | BE | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| Sam Darnold (bench) | QB | BE | 15.9 | 16.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 9.9 | 9.0 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB | ✓ 22.7 | 20.5 | 20.0 | +2.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WR | ✓ 11.3 | 12.0 | 11.0 | -0.7 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 7.0 | 8.9 | 8.0 | -1.9 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | RB | RB | 22.3 | 18.0 |
| James Cook III | RB | RB | 17.2 | 18.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | TE | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.4 | 12.0 |
| Cairo Santos | K | K | 8.4 | 7.0 |
| Buccaneers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.6 | --- |
| Chase McLaughlin (bench) | K | BE | 8.0 | --- |
| Chimere Dike (bench) | WR | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Dallas Goedert (bench) | TE | BE | 10.8 | --- |
| Taysom Hill (bench) | TE | BE | 10.4 | --- |
| Trevor Lawrence (bench) | QB | BE | 19.4 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 26% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (this week). Context: CIN allows 2nd-most fantasy pts to QBs, game_total 53.5 (week-high), Cardinals +7 implies garbage time passing. Expert consensus has Brissett as top-10 QB. XGB bust signal is cautionary but matchup/volume override. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 22.0 pts (within 15-24 range).
Context: O/U: 53.5 | Def Rank: 31
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 31% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust. Context: Favorable vs CAR but Brissett has better matchup vs CIN. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). Context: TB -5.5 favored, game_total 46.5, positive game script for rushing. XGB shows elevated bust risk but MC has 58.5% moderate probability. Trusting MC historical pattern. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.5 pts (within 8.2-20.2 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5 | Def Rank: 20
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Context: Low 36.5 game total, committee concerns. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 16% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust (this week). Context: HOU has 8th-best run D, game_total only 39.5, low-scoring affair. XGB heavily favors bust but rookie has shown 16 touches/game since return. Close game script helps. Mode: MODERATE (borderline BUST). Projection: 12.0 pts (within 7-17 range).
Context: O/U: 39.5 | Def Rank: 8
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 3.2 (BUST)
Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (DEN @ KC Thursday). Actual: 3.2 pts. On bench.
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 19.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust (this week). Context: CAR allows 25th-most to WRs, SEA -7.5 favored. Experts have JSN as must-start WR1 (#3 overall). MC and XGB both favor moderate-boom. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 19.5 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 25
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 28% BOOM (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). Context: Bounced back in W16 with 10 targets, 73 yards, TD. Seattle's coverage not elite. Negative game script helps volume. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-17 range).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM (historical). XGB: 42.3% boom (highest on roster!), 22.4% bust. Context: CIN allows 28th-most to WRs, 53.5 game total (week-high), negative game script means passing volume. XGB strongly signals boom. Mode: MODERATE (high end, near BOOM). Projection: 14.0 pts. CONSIDER STARTING over McMillan.
Context: O/U: 53.5 | Def Rank: 28
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: On IR. Game completed (DEN @ KC Thursday).
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 5.7 (BUST)
Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (DET @ MIN Thursday). Actual: 5.7 pts. Result was BUST vs 15.4 MC expected value.
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.2% boom, 39.1% bust. Low game total (39.5) caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.8% boom, 53.0% bust. Behind JSN in target pecking order. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (this week). Context: TEN allows 22nd-most to TEs, game_total 36.5 is low. XGB sees high bust risk but TE position is volatile. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 9.0 pts (within 6-12 range).
Context: O/U: 36.5 | Def Rank: 22
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 8.0% boom, 61.6% bust. Context: NYJ allows 28th-most to TEs, favorable matchup. Despite XGB bust signal, matchup is elite. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 35.0 | Def Rank: 28
MC (Historical): BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 13.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 28% BOOM (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). Context: Bounced back in W16 with 10 targets, 73 yards, TD. Seattle's coverage not elite. Negative game script helps volume. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within 8-17 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: On IR. Game completed (DEN @ KC Thursday).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust. Context: Low 36.5 game total, committee concerns. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 3.2
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: GAME COMPLETED (DEN @ KC Thursday). Actual: 3.2 pts. On bench.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%
Notes: MC: 31% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust. Context: Favorable vs CAR but Brissett has better matchup vs CIN. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%
Notes: MC: 24% BOOM (historical). XGB: 8.0% boom, 61.6% bust. Context: NYJ allows 28th-most to TEs, favorable matchup. Despite XGB bust signal, matchup is elite. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%
Notes: MC: 32% BOOM (historical). XGB: 15.2% boom, 39.1% bust. Low game total (39.5) caps upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%
Notes: MC: 33% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.8% boom, 53.0% bust. Behind JSN in target pecking order. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability
Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability
Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability
Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 17.2 | 18.0 | BOOM | 57% | 31% | 12% | HIGH |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 20.5 | 20.0 | MODERATE | 51% | 34% | 15% | HIGH |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 49% | 36% | 15% | HIGH |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 12.1 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 41% | 40% | 19% | HIGH |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | DEN | 8.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 29% | 45% | 26% | MEDIUM |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WSH | 12.0 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 27% | 52% | 22% | MEDIUM |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 22.3 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 13% | 64% | 23% | LOW |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 8.4 | 7.0 | BUST | 13% | 28% | 59% | LOW |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.4 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 9% | 48% | 43% | LOW |
James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)
Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)
Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)
Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)
Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)
Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)
De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)
Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)
DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Jordan Love | QB | 0.0 | 27% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 7.8 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 10.1 | 24% | 27% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.1 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Giants D/ST | D/ST | 6.7 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 8.9 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.7 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.0 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11.8 | 13% | 52% | 0.0% | |
| Ricky Pearsall | WR | 10.2 | 12% | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.7 | 12% | 57% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Jordan Love | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 27% | 21% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.9 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.7 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | 11.9 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 9% | 64% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7.9 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.4 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10.1 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.7 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.8 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 13% | 52% | |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.2 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:33% | 12% | 50% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.5 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7.8 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Zach Ertz | 10.1 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% | 24% | 27% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.6 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 8.9 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Giants D/ST | 6.7 | 18% | 46% | |
| 49ers D/ST | 8.0 | 14% | 51% |
Win Probability
Floor: -38.1 pts | Median: +2.0 pts | Ceiling: +41.6 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 22.0 | 4.3-28.1 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 14.5 | 4.9-23.7 | ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.6-24.2 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 19.5 | 6.3-29.9 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 4.8-25.3 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 5.7 | 4.0-26.3 | ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.9-16.5 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.0-18.1 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 5.4-19.0 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 8% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | QB | HIGH | 16.0 | 4.0-27.3 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.6-18.3 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 29% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 3.2 | 2.3-15.6 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.8-21.5 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.9-23.3 | ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | HIGH | 9.0 | 1.8-19.8 | ↑15+: 24% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.8-20.6 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 31% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 0.0 | 6.5-27.6 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | MED | 20.0 | 7.5-29.7 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MED | 18.0 | 10.8-31.1 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| James Cook III | RB | MED | 18.0 | 6.2-27.3 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.4-24.4 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.1-22.4 | ↑15+: 37% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.6-23.1 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Tyler Warren | TE | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.2-18.3 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.0-17.9 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Cairo Santos | K | HIGH | 7.0 | 3.9-16.1 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | HIGH | 18.8 | 8.2-30.4 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 2% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Chimere Dike | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.0-20.5 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | HIGH | 11.9 | 3.8-23.3 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Taysom Hill | TE | HIGH | 5.4 | 0.7-13.4 | ↑15+: 7% | ↓5-: 73% | |
| Buccaneers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.3-21.1 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.7-16.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 14% @ 27.6 | 37% @ 13.7 | 49% @ 7.0 | 12.4 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.0 | 43% @ 12.0 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.9 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.8 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.3 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 6.2 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.2 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 9.9 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 12.3 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 8.3 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 15.2% | 45.7% | 39.1% |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 9.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 13.8% | 33.2% | 53.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.3 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 13.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 14.7 | 14.5 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.4 | 5.7 | BUST | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 9.8 | 3.2 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.8 | 19.5 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 14.9 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 8.0% | 30.5% | 61.6% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1902.3 | 1682.2 | +220.1 | 41.0 vs 5.7 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1787.5 | 1776.8 | +10.7 | 16.4 vs 11.4 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1828.5 | 1599.6 | +228.9 | 5.7 vs 41.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1771.3 | 1741.4 | +30.0 | 11.4 vs 16.4 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1717.7 | 1743.2 | -25.5 | 11.8 vs 11.3 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1553.0 | 1688.3 | -135.3 | 38.0 vs 23.4 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1765.7 | 1681.7 | +84.1 | 35.2 vs 7.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1676.2 | 1790.3 | -114.1 | 11.3 vs 11.8 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1680.4 | 1675.5 | +4.9 | 16.0 vs 28.6 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1676.9 | 1790.0 | -113.1 | 23.4 vs 38.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1612.6 | 1705.6 | -93.0 | 28.6 vs 16.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1704.9 | 1802.6 | -97.7 | 7.0 vs 35.2 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 41.0 | @ | 5.7 | Valued Customers |
| 4th and pinches | 16.4 | @ | 11.4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Wookie of the Year | 11.8 | @ | 11.3 | Moms rules |
| Meat Pistols | 38.0 | @ | 23.4 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 35.2 | @ | 7.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Smooth Roosters | 16.0 | @ | 28.6 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.3 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.8 | 19.5 | 0.0 | -19.5 |
| Opponent | RB | De'Von Achane | 22.3 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Opponent | RB | James Cook III | 17.2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Sam Darnold | 15.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 14.7 | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.9 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 13.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.3 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 14.9 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DeVonta Smith | 12.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Tyler Warren | 12.1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Quentin Johnston | 8.3 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 9.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 6.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | K | Cairo Santos | 8.4 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Dak Prescott | 20.5 | 20.0 | 22.7 | +2.7 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Broncos D/ST | 8.9 | 8.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Deebo Samuel | 12.0 | 11.0 | 11.3 | +0.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.